Guatemala’s long-term climate action plan
Charting long-term, low-carbon pathways anchored in Guatemala’s development priorities and rural realities.
Guatemala’s long-term climate action plan is being designed as a bridge between near-term policy instruments and a 2050-horizon vision of an inclusive, resilient economy. Alongside the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MARN) and Climate Lead Group, I support the technical analyses, scenario modelling, and participatory design of two parallel long-term strategies.
The work builds on the sectoral mitigation analyses that feed Guatemala’s NDC 3.0, extending the time horizon to 2050 and layering in adaptation and resilience indicators. Scenarios explore how shifts in the electricity mix, freight and urban transport, agriculture and forestry practices, and waste management interact with jobs, fiscal space, and rural livelihoods.
A core emphasis has been designing the process so that long-term modelling is not a closed-door exercise. We have convened multi-stakeholder workshops with ministries, subnational authorities, industry associations, and civil society organisations, using visual narrative outputs to keep the conversation grounded in what the transition actually looks like — in communities, farms, and cities.
The aim is a strategy that is technically rigorous, fiscally realistic, and legitimate in the eyes of the actors who will be asked to deliver it.