Guatemala’s NDC 3.0: sharpening near-term ambition
Supporting the technical and stakeholder engagement backbone of Guatemala’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution.
Guatemala’s third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0) is an opportunity to sharpen near-term climate ambition in a way that is anchored in the country’s development priorities, fiscal realities, and rural livelihoods. Working alongside Climate Lead Group and under the leadership of the Climate Change Directorate (DCC) at the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MARN), I coordinate the technical analyses and the stakeholder engagement process that feed the update.
The work cuts across energy, transport, AFOLU, and waste — sectors where the political economy, data gaps, and capacity realities all matter as much as the numbers. We are combining open-access modelling tools with sector-by-sector consultations so that the mitigation targets land with government counterparts, subnational actors, and civil society organisations who ultimately carry implementation.
A parallel thread has been adaptation. Guatemala is deeply exposed to drought, flooding, and coffee-belt displacement, and NDC 3.0 is an opportunity to raise the profile of resilience indicators alongside emission targets. We are supporting the Directorate in articulating adaptation commitments that are specific enough to be tracked, while remaining realistic about institutional bandwidth.
The update is being designed with the long view in mind — the pathways and indicators being scoped now will feed directly into Guatemala’s longer-term climate planning.