Power sector pathways for Latin America and the Caribbean
Regional scenario modelling and an emissions-impact assessment questioning natural gas as an investment for the LAC transition.
As an Energy Data Analyst consulting for the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), I supported a regional analysis of power sector pathways across Latin America and the Caribbean. The work asked a simple but politically loaded question: is natural gas a good investment for the region’s energy transition?
The analysis combined open-source scenario modelling with an emissions-impact assessment that tracked committed gas-fired capacity, lock-in risk, and the opportunity cost of redirecting capital toward renewables and storage. We worked across country-level data sets to ensure the regional picture was built bottom-up rather than averaged away.
The findings — published by UNEP in 2022 — pointed to a real risk of stranded assets and emissions lock-in if planned gas expansion went ahead at the pace utilities and regulators were signalling, and pointed instead toward a renewables-plus-flexibility pathway better aligned with the region’s climate commitments and power affordability goals.
The report has since been used as reference material in regional policy conversations and in several country-level energy planning processes.